Centro de Intercambio y Solidaridad

Election Observer Mission Bulletin no. 1

 October 31st, 2008

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The Press Commission of the Election Observation Mission will be reporting on developments regarding the upcoming elections in the Salvadoran and international media.  The following are significant developments covered by the various media sources from October 20-26, 2008.

Recent Polling Results

The most recent CID Gallup Latin America Poll of El Salvador indicates that journalist Mauricio Funes of the FMLN is ahead in 42.2% to 38.6% over his conservative rival Rodrigo Ávila of ARENA.  Although early, the leftist candidate has remained in the lead since polling began.  However, the race is expected to become much closer as the numbers gradually move towards the ARENA candidate.  Mere weeks ago Funes was up by as much as 10-12 points.

The polling information also indicates that the FMLN is the largest political party, garnering 36% of the citizenry while ARENA holds 32% and the smaller parties collectively hold 5%.

In answering which party would be more positive for the country, FMLN wins 42% while ARENA holds about 31%.

The poll was held September 22-27, using personal and telephone interviews of 1,207 citizens.

ARENA Selects Arturo Zablah for the Vice-Presidency

With the recent advent of Arturo Zablah as ARENA’s vice-presidential candidate, a number of questions have been raised as to the significance of this for the forthcoming (March 2009) presidential elections, ARENA internal structures and political party alignments in general. Among the issues commented on over the past couple of weeks:

Strengthened ticket or internal divisions?    While a number of commentators speak of the “opening up” of ARENA to outsiders with appeal to voters not in the traditional ARENA voting bloc (voto duro) as a well-considered, even strategically wise move, others express doubts about ARENA’s ability to accommodate these outsiders without affecting what has to date been a monolithic, almost hermetically sealed, conservative party ideology and unity.

Separate campaign centers.  Zablah inaugurated his own campaign center this past week with a number of activists from CD, FDR and PDC, as well as ARENA regulars, in attendance. It appears that this physical and symbolic distance can only lead to less internal unity in ARENA.

Co-gobierno? Together with the separation of campaign centers, a number of commentators have observed this potential based on the detailed negotiations which led to the formation of this ticket.  How would the role of the vice-president change in an ARENA administration? Will the IVA be eliminated on pharmaceuticals? Will Zablah be in charge of all economic policy? Did the negotiations signify an act of desperation, based, in part, on a generalized lack of internal confidence in the presidential candidate?

Municipal councils (concejos municipals).  It remains to be seen whether Zablah supporters will be granted representation on the municipal council slates to be presented over the next couple of months.

FDR-CD split.  FDR chairman Hernández publicly praised the selection of Zablah, a move which drew an immediate negative response from CD chairman Dada Hirezi. This incident led to the dissolution of the FDR-CD coalition in a number of municipalities.

Organization of American States Presents Recommendations for Election Transparency

Representative of the Organization of American States presented to different sectors of society manuals with recommendations towards creating more transparency in elections.  These recommendations emerged in the process of the audit of the Electoral Registry of 2007.  This audit was requested by political parties and civil society groups because the TSE had not allowed them access to the Electoral Registry .  One of the fundamental recommendations is to facilitate and elaborate a process  for political parties to access the Registry.  An article in the Diario CoLatino from October 25th called Social Organizations’ worry for the lack of transparency refers to the issue of lack of trust on behalf of the Salvadoran population, citing representatives from civil society who say that the population does not trust that the TSE will execute these recommendations and other necessary changes to create electoral transparency.

Joaquín Villalobos Voices his Opinion

In an op-ed piece in El Diario de Hoy this week (10/21/08) Joaquín Villalobos wrote a harsh criticism of el Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) and painted a critical picture of what an FMLN government would look like if its presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes, wins in March.  Given his past as a military commander and leader of FMLN forces during the war, Villalobos’ commentary has added importance.  Villalobos focused his rhetoric on criticizing what he sees as leftist extremism of the party saying that “the FMLN is the most extremist leftist party in all of Latin America.”  He also warned that an FMLN government would mean the deterioration of relations with the United States - repeating the propaganda often put forth by the right wing in El Salvador that remittances from Salvadorans in the United States will be cut off.  Villalobos’ commentary is reflective of the broader rhetoric and argument made by conservative elements in the country.